Glasgow Warriors have already locked in a place in the United Rugby Championship’s top four, meaning they have earned a home quarter-final in the playoffs.

They are still within striking distance of the sides ahead of them – Munster, Bulls and Leinster – but need other results to go their way to progress further up the table.

To overtake Leinster

Glasgow need to better the Irish side’s result at home to Connacht.

If the Warriors and Leinster both collect the same number of points from their Round 18 fixtures, they will be level on match points and also on the first tiebreaker (wins). In order to split them it will then progress to:

  • Points difference (currently Leinster +178, Glasgow +154); then
  • Tries scored (currently Leinster 76, Glasgow 71); then
  • Points scored (currently Leinster 521, Glasgow 481); then
  • Tries difference (currently Glasgow +38, Leinster +34); then
  • Players suspended (currently Leinster 0, Glasgow 1); then
  • Yellow cards (currently Leinster 7, Glasgow 9); then
  • Toss of a coin

To overtake Bulls

Failing to at least pick up a fourth try and a consolation bonus point against the Lions has left the Warriors a point behind the Bulls.

If Glasgow can continue their strong home record against Zebre and take a bonus point win on Friday evening, the pressure will then be on the South African side when they travel to play the Sharks the following afternoon.

A BP victory would clinch it for the Bulls. A win with no four try bonus would bring it down to tiebreakers, while a draw or defeat would see the Warriors move up ahead of the team from Pretoria.

  • Points difference (currently Bulls +194, Glasgow +154); then
  • Tries scored (currently Bulls 81, Glasgow 71); then
  • Points scored (currently Bulls 613, Glasgow 481); then
  • Tries difference (currently Glasgow +38, Bulls +29); then
  • Players suspended (currently Glasgow 1, Bulls 2); then
  • Yellow cards (currently Bulls 8, Glasgow 9); then
  • Toss of a coin

To overtake Munster

Last season’s champions have a hefty three point lead over the Warriors meaning that the only possible routes to overhaul Munster are:

Glasgow BP win over Zebre:

  • Munster (no try BP) draw with Ulster. Glasgow ahead on wins tiebreaker
  • Munster (2 BPs) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on wins tiebreaker
  • Munster (1 BP) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on league points
  • Munster (no BP) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on league points

Glasgow win (no BP) over Zebre:

  • Munster (1 BP) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on wins tiebreaker
  • Munster (no BP) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on league points

Glasgow draw (with try BP) against Zebre:

  • Munster (no BP) lose to Ulster. Glasgow ahead on points difference tiebreaker

If Glasgow get two points or fewer against Zebre, there is no way to overtake Munster. If Munster win their Round 18 clash at home to Ulster there is no way for the Warriors to finish ahead of them.

Moving on up

There’s only a minimal gain in progressing from fourth to third in the league with both spots earning a home quarter-final. The only point where it would become a direct benefit would be if third and fourth overcame the odds and met in the final where the higher seeded team would have home advantage.

Second place brings with it a guaranteed home semi-final for a team that progresses that far. Top spot means a home semi-final and home final if the first placed side makes it all the way.

As long as Glasgow make it ten bonus point wins in a row at home against Zebre then in order for them to finish in third, one of the following has to happen; to finish second, two of the following have to happen; to finish first, all of the following have to happen.

  • Leinster do not get a BP win against Connacht or if they do, their margin of victory is 25 points fewer than Glasgow’s.
  • Bulls draw with or lose to Sharks or if they do win, there is no try BP and their margin of victory is 41 points fewer than Glasgow’s.
  • Munster lose to Ulster or Munster draw with no try BP.

The most likely opponents for each of the top four to host are:

  • First – Ospreys or loser of Benetton v Edinburgh, depending on bonus points
  • Second – Ulster
  • Third – winner of Benetton v Edinburgh
  • Fourth – Stormers