All the stats and key battles ahead of crunch Glasgow vs Zebre

While Franco Smith's side are guaranteed a spot in the last eight, their hopes of a home semi-final, should they make it that far, took a hit with defeats to the Bulls and Lions in South Africa. 

Smith welcomes back Scotland pair Huw Jones and Richie Gray into the starting XV for a match that could shape the rest of Glasgow's season.

Here, Kevin Millar takes a close look at the game.

There is a clear extrapolation to be made from the tries scored by Glasgow Warriors hookers in home games v Zebre since 2018:

• 0 – 2017/18
• 1 – 2018/19 (George Turner)
• 2 – 2019/20 (Mesu Dolokoto 2)
• 3 – 2021/22 (Johnny Matthews 3)
• 4 – 2022/23 (Johnny Matthews 3, Fraser Brown)

• Five tries it is on Friday evening then?!?
• There are 1,025 Warriors appearances and 404 Test caps in the starting XV, making this their most experienced side for any game so far this season.
• Franco Smith has only named a five forwards / three backs split on the bench on one other occasion during his time in charge of Glasgow (away to Bath in the Challenge Cup in December 2022).
• This is the first time Stafford McDowall has missed a URC game since January 2023, with the centre having started the last 25 in a row in the league.
• Zebre haven’t won outside Italy in the URC since they beat the Dragons 12 – 39 at Rodney Parade in November 2019.
• Try scoring sensation, Johnny Matthews, is the Warrior to Watch.

Teams:

(players in CAPITALS are full capped internationals, numbers in brackets are previous appearances for Glasgow / Zebre)

Head to Head:

Glasgow Greetings:

Jamie Bhatti hasn’t played at Scotstoun since running out against Dragons for his 100th Warriors’ appearance 105 days ago.

There has been an even longer absence for Huw Jones, who hasn’t featured at all for Glasgow for 134 days while it’s another six days more than that since Richie Gray last played for the club.

Matchday Milestones:

Duncan Weir will bring up yet another milestone in his storied Glasgow career when he becomes just the fifth back to play 150 times for the Warriors. The stand off will follow in the footsteps of Graeme Morrison, Peter Horne, Ruaridh Jackson and Tommy Seymour.

There’s a 50th start in the centres for Sione Tuipulotu who will skipper the side for the fifth time this season.

Warrior to Watch:

Having set a new single season record of 13 tries for the club during 2022/23, Johnny Matthews has already equalled that mark during the current campaign.

With at least two games remaining – and Warriors’ fans will be keeping everything crossed for a further two beyond that – the prolific hooker should get a number of chances to extend his record further.

Since notching his 13th of the season, against Harlequins at the Stoop, there has been a three match barren spell for Matthews, for the first time in over a year.

There has also been a bit of a pause in his scoring action at home. The hooker ranks third for tries at Scotstoun – behind Niko Matawalu and Tommy Seymour – but with his last four tries coming at away venues he hasn’t (yet) bagged one on home turf in 2024.

That could all change though when he gets to tackle his favourite opposition – Zebre.

The Scouser didn’t cross in either of his first two appearances against the Italian side – both away from home – but since he took to the field at Scotstoun on 1st April 2022 it has been raining tries.

With two hat-tricks and a double from the bench, he has scored a try for every 16.6 minutes played across his last three outings versus Zebre. His tally of eight five-pointers in total are the most for any Glasgow player against the team from Parma:

• 8 – Johnny Matthews
• 7 – DTH van der Merwe
• 7 – George Horne
• 5 – Peter Horne
• 5 – Matt Fagerson

Current form:

Glasgow’s Track Record…

…at home to Zebre in the PRO12/PRO14/URC era:

• 10 wins
• 9 Try BPs
• 49 points out of a possible 50 (98%)

Previous Match-up v Zebre at Scotstoun:

Officials:

Referee: Peter Martin (IRFU, 3rd league game)
AR1: Hollie Davidson (SRU)
AR2: Michael Todd (SRU)
TMO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)

Mr Martin’s regular season record for 2023/24:

• Matches – 2
• Average penalty count – 20.0 per game
• Home side penalties conceded percentage – 37.5%
• Average card count – 1.0 per game
• Penalties per card – 20.0

Mr Martin will be making his Scotstoun and Warriors’ debut on Friday evening. Slightly ominously, the Irish whistler has only ever taken charge of victories by Italian sides so far in the league.

Those previous encounters were home games for Zebre and Benetton though. Mr Martin was the man in the middle for the side from Parma’s only win in their last 36 URC fixtures when they shocked the Sharks back in November.

The inexperienced official is the 13th different referee for Glasgow in 18 league games this season, with nationalities breaking down as:

• Irish – 7 games (Andrew Brace 2, Eoghan Cross 2, Chris Busby, Peter Martin, Frank Murphy)
• Welsh – 5 games (Craig Evans 2, Ben Whitehouse 2, Adam Jones)
• Italian – 3 games (Gianluca Gnecchi, Andrea Piardi, Federico Vedovellli)
• Scottish – 2 games (Sam Grove-White, Mike Adamson)
• South African – 1 game (Marius van der Westhuizen)

Additional ref stats from: https://www.cardiffrfcfans.com/analysis/referee_heads.php?countryID=3