Scotland's meeting with Australia will be the 13th Test match of 2024, the most for any non-World Cup year in the national side’s history.
Gregor Townsend's team currently have eight wins, the same number as in 2023 (from 13 fixtures) and 1999 (from 12 fixtures). Victory on Sunday would move them on to a new record of nine wins in a calendar year.
The Scots have already racked up a record 59 tries this year. Given Australia’s attacking potential, it is likely the home side will need to add a few more to that tally to come away with a win in this Hopetoun Cup clash.
Most tries scored by Scotland in a calendar year
- 59 – 2024
- 53 – 2023
- 50 – 1999
- 43 – 2019
- 41 – 2017
- 40 – 2018
- 37 – 2022
- 36 – 2021
- 34 – 1995
- 34 – 2015
Duhan van der Merwe has contributed eight of the tries scored this year.
Australia Scouting Report
Last five matches outside Australia
- Nov 17 2024: Wales 20-52 Australia
- Nov 9 2024: England 37-42 Australia
- Sep 28 2024: New Zealand 33-13 Australia
- Sep 7 2024: Argentina 67-27 Australia
- Aug 31 2024: Argentina 19-20 Australia
Building Back Better
At times it has been a bit of an odd year for Australia, as they have attempted to rebuild from the wreckage of Eddie Jones’ time in charge.
No occasion was more strange than their game away to Argentina in Santa Fe when a 3-20 lead for the visitors with 29 minutes on the clock was turned into a 41-27 deficit with 10 minutes to play.
That’s when things turned extremely bizarre, as a previously competitive Wallabies’ side conceded four tries to crumble to a 40-point margin of defeat.
Three of the four fixtures they played against those two nations were held in Australia, and the Springboks didn’t even travel with a full strength squad.
Beyond those losses to two of the top three sides in the world – and the capitulation in Santa Fe – things have started to look much better for Joe Schmidt’s side during 2024 though.
They have been able to avenge themselves on the Welsh (three times no less!) for last year’s World Cup shellacking, as well as knocking over England and Georgia to add to their one win in the Rugby Championship against Argentina.
Picking the best players available and having an actual gameplan they can execute have moved Australia a long way from their shambolic RWC 2023 exit.
Rapid Rucks
This was one of the keys to the game against South Africa for Scotland and it will be the same again this time round.
In each of their three most recent wins, Australia have come out on top in the ruck speed battle. Percentage of rucks won in 0-3 secs:
- Australia 67% - 56% Wales
- Australia 59% - 56% England
- Australia 71% - 53% Argentina
It may not be the Schmidt-ball of his time coaching Ireland – he has a very different playing group at his disposal of course – but there are still some fundamental traits and focusing on excellence around the contact area is one of them.
That means a lot of rucks to hit – during 2024 so far they average 103 rucks won per game to their opponents' 87.
Unlike Ireland where even slow ball could be turned into incremental gains, the Wallabies will need lightning quick possession to allow them to get width in their attack as fast as possible.
Attacking Advancement
The Australian attack has really begun to shift into gear as they have had more time with the new coaching setup.
Across their last five matches, they have forced at least 24 missed tackles from their opponents in each game (it was 36 against England a couple of weeks back).
That’s something they didn’t manage in any of their first half-dozen fixtures during 2024.
This increasingly open style of play can also be seen in their carrying and passing numbers. They average 24% more carries and 22% more passes in their latter five games versus Tier 1 nations this year compared to their first five against a similar level of opposition.
That’s not far off the numbers that Scotland put up for this stat in 50+ point wins over Fiji and Portugal (489m and 440m respectively) but the Aussies have managed it against Tier 1 defensive systems, coaching and players.
Miscellany
- One stat Joe Schmidt will have particularly enjoyed in the last fortnight is that his side only allowed England to win three turnovers, with just one for Wales. Scotland are likely to have a couple of poachers in their line-up but the Wallabies’ breakdown is a tough one to target.
- Skipper Harry Wilson was a big miss against the Welsh after his enforced departure in the England match. He was Australia’s top carrier in the game at Twickenham, as he was pretty much throughout the second half of the Rugby Championship.
- In Wilson’s absence, prop Angus Bell has increasingly stepped up to the plate in terms of volume of carries. With his side’s scrum struggling, particularly against Wales, that’s maybe an additional pressure the loosehead could do without.
- When the Aussie attack is really firing, Tom Wright will be at the heart of it. He made more metres than any of his teammates in four of their six wins this year, including 243m versus Wales, on top of five tries in his last four Tests. If he is being shut out of the game it will be a big sign that the Scottish defence is on top.
Most recent meeting in Edinburgh
Scotland 15-16 Australia
Significant stat
Nine: The points by which Scotland led in the 2022 meeting with 56 minutes on the clock when Duhan van der Merwe burst through and took his side close to the visitors’ goal line.
It was an attack that should have propelled the Scots to a 14 or even 16-point advantage.
The hosts were wasteful throughout a match they should have won comfortably. They cannot afford a repeat of that this weekend.
World ranking watch
Current world rankings: 6th Scotland (82.70) v 8th Australia (82.17)
The Scots’ historic win percentage against teams ranked eighth in the world is 19%. That’s exactly the same percentage they have managed versus teams ranked second.
For the first time in this Autumn Nations Series, Scotland will be putting their world ranking directly on the line.
Win, and they will put a bit more space between themselves and the seventh-to-ninth logjam, while closing in on fifth-placed Argentina, particularly if the Pumas lose to France.
Officials
- Referee: Chris Busby (Ireland)
- Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace and Eoghan Cross (both Ireland)
- TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
- FPRO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)
- This will be yet another new referee for Scotland, but Mr Busby will be an extremely familiar face for most of the side from URC action.
The Irish whistler has taken charge of 11 Edinburgh and Glasgow fixtures since the start of the 2022/23 season, including the Warriors’ recent loss in South Africa against the Sharks.
Young refs tend to be a bit stricter when starting out on international duty though and with the 20 minute red available, all players will need to keep tackle heights down and breakdown entries clean.
The Scots have given up 35 penalties in their three matches so far in November – one fewer than their opponents.
That’s a big improvement from the Six Nations when they conceded 30 more pens than the opposition but it still feels like they need to get their offence count down into single digits more consistently
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