These sides met 14 months ago in Marseille and this time round a very similar Scotland line-up will get a chance for revenge against a much changed South African selection.
If Darcy Graham hadn’t picked up a head injury against Fiji then the home side would likely have opted for an identical backline to the one that ran out at the Stade Velodrome.
By contrast, there isn’t a single survivor from the seven Springbok backs who started when these sides clashed at the World Cup.
Given that game produced a rare tryless outing for some of the most prolific backs in the history of Scottish rugby, they may welcome avoiding a rematch, particularly with the Kriallende centre pairing that clogged up the midfield.
Eben Etzebeth and Franco Mostert are the only returning South African starters from the RWC encounter – although they are joined by three players promoted from the bench.
Meanwhile, Ewan Ashman is the only member of the Scotland pack who wasn’t involved in September 2023, with Scott Cummings and Matt Fagerson moving up from the subs alongside five players who started the last time out
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Head-to-heads
The former Ayrshire Bulls had to twiddle his thumbs during his first season with Glasgow, but since Franco Smith arrived, Jordan has been ever present in the Warriors’ 23 in the URC – 46 consecutive matches.
It’s been a long road to the top but he is reaping the reward for a huge amount of graft and continuous improvement in his game. His mental and physical toughness will be handy in the face of a Springbok onslaught as he becomes be the fourth player to start at full back for the dark blues this year.
Scotland do need to stand up and be counted but they also can’t stray too far from their own identity and that means trying to pick apart the visitors’ defence primarily through guile and deception – as well as a bit of confrontation.
Having three stand-offs in the mix plus the playmaking stylings of skipper Sione Tuipulotu might open things up a bit, or at the very least give the South African back-row pause when they go haring into Finn Russell’s face after every set-piece and breakdown.
That third stand-off, joining Russell and Jordan, is of course Blair Kinghorn. He has been back on the back 3 beat for a while now, although this will be his first start on the wing for Scotland since November 2020.
The home side will be keen to get Kinghorn involved as much as possible. His boot was an excellent outlet during the World Cup matchup and his languid running style frequently allows him to ghost past defenders.
In terms of numbers, they still have a way to go to match the 28 Tests that Sean Lineen and Scott Hastings started together but the Warriors’ centres are already among the dark blues’ best ever combinations.
Even at that level, they still came off second best to Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel during the World Cup campaign but they will have another chance to take on a classy Springbok pairing.
Both Lukhanyo Am and Andre Esterhuizen have a point to prove. Am is fighting to show he can still be the force who was one of the very best in the world and an automatic starter not that long ago.
Esterhuizen’s move back to South Africa and the Sharks from Harlequins was surely motivated at least in part by a desire to maximise his visibility to the Springbok selectors.
Shutting down Huwipulotu the way their colleagues did last year will be high on the agenda. Scotland’s 12 and 13 are in fine form though and how well they bring that into this game will have a big say in how the dark blues perform.
The Scots need to respond in kind with high quality kicks and an aggressive chase that takes advantage of the current refereeing focus on not allowing any significant blocking in front of the catcher.
Ben White has been the most consistent of Scotland’s scrum halves since he arrived on the international scene.
His exits have tended to be longer and less at risk of being charged down but it is how well his kicks in play win territory for his team that will be key.
For Finn Russell it’s all about decision-making and picking the right moment. Scotland’s stand off has all the kicking options in his locker and this could be the winning of the game if he gets time and space.
The younger of the two, Fagerson, has played around 100 minutes more, largely due to going the full 80 minutes in all three of Warriors’ URC playoff fixtures.
Both men are the building blocks that the Edinburgh and Glasgow packs are built around but they will unquestionably need some rest very shortly.
Next weekend against Portugal should be ideal for a break. Add in the week after the Autumn Tests finish plus one or other of the 1872 Cup matches, and it should hopefully be possible to keep both players fit and firing for the run-in to the current season – and possibly a Lions’ tour as well.
This will be the third consecutive Scotland v South Africa match this duo have started and they had the better of Richie Gray / Grant Gilchrist in 2023 as well as Sam Skinner / Gilchrist in 2021.
The Edinburgh skipper also lost against the Springboks in 2014 when paired with Tim Swinson so he will be hoping it’s fourth time lucky with Scott Cummings at his side.
While it’s probably too much to hope that the Scots can dominate this battle, if they can keep their setpiece work neat and tidy and protect the ruck area from the rampaging South Africans, it could earn those precious extra tenths of a second for the backs to make something happen.
Five of these six players also started when Glasgow took on the Bulls in the URC Grand Final in June.
In fact, it’s a little surprising that having benched his first choice trio, Rassie Erasmus didn’t opt to make it a full re-match by starting Cameron Hanekom at Murrayfield.
Instead, he has opted to give the number 8 jersey to Kwagga Smith – an outstanding player in his own right, but one whose very best contributions seem to have come from the bench or at the very least in the openside flanker role.
Jack Dempsey and Elrigh Louw went toe to toe during the final, leading their respective sides with 18 carries each.
On that day Dempsey was very much the man though, racking up 112 metres with ball in hand and seven tackle breaks against Louw’s 47m and no breaks.
Scotland could do with that level of performance from their number eight on Sunday.
The Scottish subs’ equivalent stats are none (none), 120 and 11.
Dylan Richardson will be able to look across and see three of his Sharks’ clubmates warming up, with another seven in the starting lineup from the Durban based side.
Among that group is tighthead prop Vincent Koch who is in line to make his 39th appearance from the bench in his last 41 caps.
Koch is a proper old school prop. 59 games into his Test career and not a single try to show for it. None of your fancy scoring antics here – he is too busy at the bottom of the ruck that set it all up.
Jamie Ritchie is someone who is less used to this role. He has made more sub appearances for Scotland so far in 2024 (three) than in the rest of his international career (two).
Scotland take the advantage here simply based on sheer weight of numbers!
The dark blues have deployed the six forwards, two backs split among the substitutes on nine previous occasions. They have lost the last four matches when they have used this type of bench.
Aggregates for the matchday 23s
Miscellany
- 34 of those involved play for teams in the URC, with five from Japan Rugby League One, five from the Premiership and two from the Top 14.
- This is just the sixth time in his 85 matches in charge of the national side that Gregor Townsend has named a starting XV with more than 600 caps.
- Until 2024, the Scotland head coach had picked the same starting pack in back-to-back matches just once during his tenure (England and Ireland in the 2018 Six Nations). With the same eight retained following the Fiji game, this is already the second time this has happened this year after Italy and Ireland in the Six Nations.
- Last year’s clash at the World Cup is the only meeting between these sides in the last decade where someone other than Willie le Roux started at fullback for the Springboks.
- The only occasions that Townsend has selected a heavier matchday 23 all came during the 2023 Six Nations.
- Josh Bayliss will play at Murrayfield for Scotland for just the second time since 2021.
- So far during 2024, Scottish teams have played South African sides 12 times in the URC, with Glasgow and Edinburgh winning five times. The Warriors’ wins over the Bulls and Stormers are the only away wins in any of those matches.
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