Season 2024/25 is only a matter of days away and the URC's reigning champions, Glasgow Warriors, will have some targets in mind as they look to improve on their title-winning campaign.
Across 18 rounds of regular season league action, four pool fixtures in the Champions Cup plus knockout and playoff matches, the club's workload stretches out across, potentially, the next 39 weeks.
With international duties to factor in as well for many of the key players in the squad, success across such a marathon campaign will definitely need some planning as well as goals to aim for.
So what is the shape of the Warriors' season and how might they approach the challenges posed by the different stages they face over the next nine months?
Targets
United Rugby Championship
A top-two finish in the URC looks like the next step forward for Glasgow. While the latest format of the championship has already seen seven away wins in the knockout stages (more than in the previous 12 seasons of playoff action), the fact remains that a home route to the title provides a statistical edge and first or second place during the regular season maximises those chances.
As an initial target, 68 points seems appropriate. It would have secured a top-two placing in each of the first three seasons of the URC. It should be close to the top spot, although that will depend if a team like Leinster can churn out a dominant campaign or if the top of the table continues to be highly competitive.
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Glasgow will likely need 14 wins and a dozen BPs to get to that tally, which doesn't leave much margin for error with some very tough fixtures on their schedule.
Any effort to reach that goal has to be built on outstanding home form. That has been the foundation during Franco Smith’s first two seasons in charge with 18 wins out of 18 at Scotstoun in the URC regular season and 83 of the 90 points available hoovered up.
Even if the Warriors can dominate at home, their performances on the road will still have to account for more than a third of the points they require.
Glasgow won four of their nine away fixtures last season - it was the failure to pick up a fifth against the Lions in Johannesburg that cost the Warriors a first place finish in 2023/24.
Away games - top targets for victories (percentage quoted is Glasgow's win rate in the fixture since the start of the PRO12 era in 2012):
- Zebre (100%)
- Cardiff (78%)
- Dragons (56%)
- Benetton (70%)
- Edinburgh (36%)
- Ulster (12%)
- Sharks (0%)
- Stormers (0%)
- Leinster (8%)
To get to 14 wins and 68 points, five road successes will be required. The top four targets above stand out as games which must be converted into victories. That still leaves one more to be ground out in some less promising locations.
If there are any slip-ups against numbers one to four (or in a home fixture) then things get much more difficult and the Warriors will need to find a further win at a tougher venue.
Champions Cup
The goal in Europe must be for Glasgow to get a first-ever victory in the knockout stages of the Champions Cup.
The starting point remains getting out of their group though. Winning both home games should be enough to make the Round of 16.
To maximise the chances of a knockout victory, a top two spot is required, bringing with it the reward of a home draw when the competition resumes in April. That most likely means 13 points are needed in the pool - and almost certainly three wins.
Five months ago, Glasgow were leading at the Stoop with less than ten minutes to play and nearly pulled off a famous win. Even still, Harlequins are only likely to be marginally more hospitable than Toulon - when it comes to coughing up match points at least.
A statement victory in the group stages and a home Round of 16 tie would be a whole other level for the Warriors.
Block One: Hitting the ground running - or surviving the start?
Fixtures
- Week 1: Ulster (A) - URC
- Week 2: Benetton (H) - URC
- Week 3: Cardiff (A) - URC
- Week 4: Zebre (H) - URC
- Week 5: Sharks (A) - URC
- Week 6: Stormers (A) - URC
- Weeks 7-10: no games (Autumn Test window)
Theme – getting up to speed and blending Scotland internationals back in across the early fixtures.
Challenges – will the Test players be available for Round Six against the Stormers in South Africa, with Scotland’s out of window international against Fiji just a week later?
To be on track – three wins and 16 points in the URC by the end of October.
Block Two: Escaping the pool stage in Europe
Fixtures
- Week 11: Scarlets (H) - URC
- Week 12: Sale (H) - Champions Cup
- Week 13: Toulon (A) - Champions Cup
- Week 14: Edinburgh (H) - URC
- Week 15: Edinburgh (A) - URC
- Week 16: no game (rest week)
- Week 17: Racing (H) - Champions Cup
- Week 18: Harlequins (A) - Champions Cup
Theme – home comforts, only leaving Scotland twice in the space of eight weeks during this block.
Challenges – across the last 20 years, Glasgow have a win percentage of just 28 per cent at Murrayfield against Edinburgh - and two of their seven wins came in front of no, or almost no, fans during Covid.
To be on track – six wins and 30 points in the URC by the end of December. Three wins and 13 points in the Champions Cup pool stages.
Block Three - Prospering without Scotland stars
Fixtures
- Week 19: Connacht (H) - URC
- Weeks 20 and 21: no game (Six Nations window)
- Week 22: Dragons (A) - URC
- Week 23: no game (Six Nations window)
- Week 24: Ospreys (H) - URC
- Weeks 25 and 26: no game (Six Nations window)
Theme – testing squad depth to its maximum with the Six Nations running.
Challenges – Dragons have historically been a bit of a bogey team for Glasgow – and the Warriors have only won one of their last four away against the Welsh side.
To be on track – nine wins and 45 points in the URC by early March.
Block Four - Standing strong at Scotstoun
Fixtures
- Week 27: Munster (H) - URC
- Week 28: Lions (H) - URC
- Week 29: Round of 16 - Champions/Challenge Cup
- Week 30: Quarter-finals - Champions/Challenge Cup
- Week 31: Zebre (A) - URC
- Week 32: Bulls (H) - URC
Theme – going for more knockout wins to add to Franco Smith’s record tally as Glasgow coach – hopefully...
Challenges – how many Scotland players can be thrown back into action a week after the Six Nations ends? Munster will be looking for revenge after being turned over on their own patch back in June...
To be on track – 13 wins and 64 points in the URC by the end of April.
Block Five - When stuff gets real
Fixtures
- Week 33: Semi-finals - Champions/Challenge Cup
- Week 34: Benetton (A) - URC
- Week 35: Leinster (A) - URC
- Week 36: Finals - Champions/Challenge Cup
- Week 37: Quarter-finals - URC
- Week 38: Semi-finals - URC
- Week 39: Finals - URC
Theme – no hiding place and brutal intensity from every fixture at this stage of the campaign.
Challenges – Treviso is a tricky place to go looking for what could be a crucial victory. Including the Rainbow Cup, the Warriors have only won two of their last six away to Benetton.
To be on track – 14 wins and 68 points in the URC by the end of the regular season. Then there is just the small matter of victories on three consecutive playoff weekends to negotiate to be crowned champions again!
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