URC Grand Final: All the key stats and head-to-heads

• There are four changes to each of the starting XVs from when these sides last met, just six weeks ago.
• The Bulls have promoted Johan Grobbelaar from the bench and brought Johan Goosen back into the lineup – but have lost both Canan Moodie and Willie le Roux to injury, with their places taken by Sergeal Petersen and Devon Williams.
• The Warriors have reinstated Johnny Matthews and Zander Fagerson (first half replacements last time round) as well as calling on Richie Gray and Huw Jones who both returned from injury just in time for the tail end of the season.
• Glasgow have never won away from home against the Bulls but can lean into the past experiences of some players in their line-up who have defeated the South African side at Loftus Versfeld. Huw Jones and Oli Kebble for Stormers in 2015; Sebastian Cancelliere for Jaguares in 2020; and Henco Venter, both for Sharks in 2022 and Cheetahs in 2015 – the latter of which was a side coached by Franco Smith.
• In their ten previous matches in South Africa, Glasgow have averaged five tries conceded (and three scored). Their defence will need to be much improved in order to compete for the win.
• There are 27 full capped internationals on show across the two teams. Ten players (with 81 caps) for the Bulls and 17 players (with 543 caps) for the Warriors.
• The pack weights are Bulls 917kg – 916kg Glasgow, with the visitors having an 11kg advantage in the tight five but fielding a much lighter back row.

The teams

Bulls vs Glasgow teams (Image: Kevin Millar)

(players in CAPITALS are full capped internationals, numbers in brackets are previous appearances this season in the URC for Bulls / Glasgow)

Head to head

Bulls vs Glasgow head-to-head (Image: Kevin Millar)

Glasgow greetings

There are no new faces in the starting lineup for the second game running. Across 28 years and 707 competitive fixtures during rugby's professional era, this is the first time ever that the Warriors have named the same starting XV for three consecutive matches.

Changes to the matchday squads from the semi-finals

Bulls

• 15/11 – Kurt-Lee Arendse for Willie le Roux with Devon Williams moving to full back
• 21 – Zak Burger for Keegan Johannes

Glasgow Warriors

• 17/18 – Nathan McBeth for Murphy Walker (Oli Kebble takes 18 jersey)
• 23 – Duncan Weir for Ross Thompson

Matchday milestones

Tom Jordan will make his 50th appearance for the Warriors. The fly-half has played in every one of Glasgow’s 39 URC matches since his debut in round one of the 2022/23 season. No other Warrior has made more than 32 appearances in the tournament during this period (Stafford McDowall).

There will be another half-centurion in the lineup with Jack Dempsey also playing for the 50th time.

Richie Gray makes his 100th start for Glasgow, now just one behind wee brother Jonny, while this will be the 50th occasion that George Turner has been sprung from the bench – among the current squad only Duncan Weir (72nd on Saturday) has more appearances as a replacement.

Play-off stats

Kicks from hand (average per game) Bulls 38 – 28 Glasgow

The Warriors’ average number of kicks per game are more than 30% higher than where they were during the regular season – but still remain significantly behind the Bulls who, so far during the playoffs, have kicked 50% more frequently than they did in Rounds 1 to 18.

The home side got into a number of kicking contests with Leinster last week in a match that saw the ball booted 79 times in total. The Bulls definitely got the better of their visitors with 59% territory one of the keys to how they controlled the game, particularly in a first half that featured 53 kicks in 40 minutes.

Passes per carry (average per game) Bulls 1.2 – 1.1 Glasgow

During the knockout stages, the Warriors have reigned in some of their natural instinct to move the ball at all costs in favour of playing more directly. Their pass to carry ratio of 1.1 compares to 1.6 for the final three games of the regular season, including the previous matchup with the Bulls.

That equates to around 60 fewer passes against the Stormers and 50 fewer versus Munster than if Glasgow had continued with their more open approach from the tail end of the league campaign.

Similar to most South African sides, the Bulls tend to keep things tighter and more direct anyway, using kicks to reach width – so this style of play is less of a change for them – but they are also making fewer passes than they did immediately prior to the playoffs.

Rucks lost (total for play-offs) Bulls 1 – 10 Glasgow

The Bulls have been brutally efficient when taking the ball into contact, only losing a single one of their 131 rucks so far, including a 100% record against Leinster, a side who try and make as many breakdowns as possible a dogfight.

That ferocious battle around the tackle and ruck were a significant feature of both the Warriors’ quarter-final and semi-final. They were particularly focused on making life as difficult as possible for Munster, which contributed to the Irish side’s misfiring attack.

Glasgow did take some risks themselves with players ending up isolated and turned over. Their net gain at the ruck is 0 (10 stolen v 10 lost) while for the Bulls this is +6 (7 stolen v 1 lost).

Goalkicking (total for play-offs) Bulls 77% – 89% Glasgow

Kicking for goal is another area where the Warriors’ have tweaked their decision making. There were still opportunities turned down against Munster, especially when they were trying to run down Matt Fagerson’s sin bin, but they did ultimately go for the posts on two occasions.

For most teams that wouldn’t be unusual but after knocking over a couple versus the Stormers, Glasgow may well end up scoring a penalty (or two) in three consecutive games for the first time ever under Franco Smith.

George Horne’s miss at Thomond Park was his first kicking failure since January following a run of 20 successes in a row. It was the first penalty kick at goal that the Warriors didn’t make for more than 17 months.

URC form

Bulls vs Glasgow Warriors form (Image: Kevin Millar)

Glasgow Warriors' track record…

…away to South African sides in the PRO14/URC era:

• Cheetahs 26 – 29 Glasgow (2017/18)
• Cheetahs 24 – 52 Glasgow (2018/19)
• Kings 38 – 28 Glasgow (2018/19)
• Cheetahs 48 – 14 Glasgow (2019/20)
• Stormers 32 – 7 Glasgow (2021/22)
• Bulls 29 – 17 Glasgow (2021/22)
• Sharks 40 – 12 Glasgow (2022/23)
• Lions 35 – 24 Glasgow (2022/23)
• Bulls 40 – 34 Glasgow (2023/24)
• Lions 44 – 21 Glasgow (2023/24)

Jamie Bhatti and Zander Fagerson are the only survivors from the Warriors’ first match in South Africa in October 2017. Henco Venter and Sergeal Petersen both played for the home side that day (with Petersen scoring the opening try) while Franco Smith was the Cheetahs’ coach at that time.

…in finals:

• Leinster 34-12 Glasgow (2013/14 PRO12)
• Glasgow 31-13 Munster (2014/15 PRO12)
• Glasgow 15-18 Leinster (2018/19 PRO14)
• Toulon 43 – 19 Glasgow (2022/23 Challenge Cup)

Previous match-up v Bulls in South Africa

Officials

Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR, 45th league game); AR1: Frank Murphy (IRFU) AR2: Craig Evans (WRU) TMO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)

Andrea Piardi’s regular season record for 2023/24

• Matches: 13
• Average penalty count: 18.3 per game
• Home side penalties conceded percentage – 48.7%
• Average card count – 1.5 per game
• Penalties per card – 11.9

After taking charge of last week’s win over Munster, Piardi is set to referee the Warriors for the fourth time in their last five URC knockout matches. Last week’s semi-final was very much a game of two halves. The opening 40 saw the number of offences at 10-3 against Glasgow, with two of their penalties leading to yellow cards.

After the break, the match was flipped on its head and it was the home side who ended up on the wrong side of an 11 – 2 offence count, capped off by a red card for Alex Nankivell.

It is rare, but not a unique circumstance, for a referee to take charge of back to back Warriors’ matches just a week apart. James Jones did it in January 2011 (Munster v Glasgow and Glasgow v Wasps) with fellow Welshman, Ben Whitehouse, doing likewise in September/October 2021 (Ulster v Glasgow and Glasgow v Sharks).

This has never happened in such significant games before though. In fact, it will be the first time that Glasgow have contested a final in the league with any referee other than Nigel Owens.

The Italian official has only been the man in the middle for one Bulls’ game in the last 20 months, their home win over Saracens in the Champions Cup earlier this season.

Glasgow’s stats with Piardi in charge

• Six matches played: W4 L2
• Average penalty count: Glasgow 10.3 – 9.8 Opponents
• Total cards: Glasgow 9 – 4 Opponents

Bulls’ stats with Piardi in charge

• Four matches played: W4
• Average penalty count: Bulls 15.8-11.5 Opponents
• Total cards: Bulls 5-5 Opponents

The home side will reflect on a pretty poor record with their penalty count under the Italian referee, while Glasgow will have to continue to focus on avoiding cards – which they signally failed to do last week against Munster!