Six teams have already secured in their place in the United Rugby Championship’s playoffs.

Edinburgh are one of five sides battling for the remaining spots. They know that the winner of their matchup away to Benetton in Round 18 is guaranteed to make the post season, while the loser will have to rely on results elsewhere.

Edinburgh 5 points v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured
  • Most likely finishing position – 6th
  • Most likely opponent – Leinster. Although it could be Glasgow...

The dream scenario for Edinburgh fans and the only outcome that would give the Scottish side a theoretical shot at fifth place.

Climbing that high would require the Stormers taking nothing at all from their home game against the Lions and for Ulster to collect a maximum of one point from their trip to Thomond Park to play Munster.

Edinburgh 4 points v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured
  • Most likely finishing position – still 6th (based on Ulster taking nothing from their trip to face Munster and Lions losing to Stormers) but looking a bit shaky.
  • Most likely opponent – Leinster/Glasgow. Slipping down to 7th would probably mean a short notice trip to South Africa to take on the Bulls.

The more realistic route to victory? Edinburgh have yet to collect a try bonus point away from home this season. Treviso on Saturday would certainly be a good time for their first but this maybe isn’t the time to change things up too much.

Ben Healy’s boot has been a consistent factor throughout the campaign and contributed to wins on the road against Dragons, Ulster, Zebre and Cardiff. The sensible option may well be to let the stand off do his thing and accumulate points in threes rather than chasing a try bonus from early in the game.

Edinburgh 3 points v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured
  • Most likely finishing position – 7th
  • Most likely opponent – Bulls

If Edinburgh claim a draw with a try bonus point, then they are still guaranteed to finish ahead of Benetton (and Connacht and Ospreys) and grab a spot in the post season.

As long as the Lions don’t win their game, this outcome should mean 7th and would secure Champions Cup rugby at the Hive in 2024/25 (barring the fairly unlikely outcome that the 8th placed side go on to win the URC and take the final slot in the top tier of European competition).

Edinburgh 2 points (from a draw) v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured if at least one of the following happens:
    • Benetton do not get a try BP; or
    • Lions lose to Stormers; or
    • Lions (no try BP) draw with Stormers.
  • Most likely finishing position – 7th
  • Most likely opponent – Bulls

A draw favours Edinburgh thanks to their superior number of wins compared to Benetton – the first tiebreaker – but requires keeping the Italian side away from a try bonus.

Edinburgh 2 bonus points v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured if at least one of the following happens:
    • Lions lose to Stormers; or
    • Lions (no try BP) draw with Stormers.
  • Most likely finishing position – 8th
  • Most likely opponent – Munster

Even collecting both bonus points won’t be enough to keep Edinburgh ahead of Benetton. It will still be sufficient to put Connacht and Ospreys out of the running and mean the Lions’ result is the only one that matters.

Eighth place no longer guarantees qualification for the Champions Cup, with the Sharks’ Challenge Cup victory giving them a ticket to the top tier in 2024/25 and only leaving seven remaining spots.

In the event of filling the final playoff place, Edinburgh’s only route to the big tournament for next season would be to win the URC outright.

Edinburgh 1 bonus point v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured if Lions (max. 1 BP) lose to Stormers
  • Most likely finishing position – 8th
  • Most likely opponent – Munster

The window to the post season would narrow down further but, as long as Edinburgh pick up something from their game in Treviso, it would still only be the Lions who could take it away from them.

Edinburgh no points v Benetton

  • Playoffs – secured if all of the following happen:
    • Connacht do not get a BP win away to Leinster; and
    • Lions collect no points from their game v Stormers; and
    • Ospreys do not get a BP win away to Cardiff.
  • Most likely finishing position – 8th
  • Most likely opponent – Munster

This is the outcome that would mean a long afternoon and evening on the couch for anyone connected with Edinburgh, and lead them to be Cardiff fans, at least for one day.

Connacht’s result will be in the books from the previous evening. The Lions’ game kicks off 15 minutes before Benetton v Edinburgh. It’s Ospreys who may have the biggest advantage.

If they are still in contention then the Welsh side will know exactly what they require from their game against Cardiff at the Arms Park, when it kicks off at 5.30pm. That could be terminal for Edinburgh’s playoff ambitions if they leave the door open by taking nothing away from Treviso.