Wales vs Scotland key battles for Six Nations opener

Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell, Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings and Jamie Ritchie are the only members of this Scottish side who also featured when the dark blues won at an empty Parc y Scarlets in 2020. Not one player in Scotland’s matchday 23 has ever experienced a Test victory in Cardiff – not surprising given it’s 22 years since that last happened, 3 days after Ewan Ashman’s 2nd birthday…

First Test start; first Six Nations appearance; home debut; first appearance in the 15 shirt since June 2021 (when Edinburgh drew with Scarlets in the Rainbow Cup) - there’s a lot going on for Kyle Rowe. Since getting injured during his solitary cap so far - on tour versus Argentina in summer 2022 - he’s missed a full year of rugby and seen his club, London Irish, go to the wall. After pitching up at Glasgow though, he’s already crossed for 7 tries in 12 appearances and should be very familiar with most of the other Scotland outside backs.

Huwipulotu took its international bow in Round 1 of last year’s Six Nations and since then has been the starting combo for 11 of the last 14 Scotland matches. While they might be relieved to not have to face George North and his nearly 50 Test tries this time round, the Tompkins / Watkins axis was deployed to good effect in Wales’ wins over the Scots in both 2022 and 2021. The Saracens’ inside centre in particular punches well above his weight in both attack and defence and can be a difficult man to contain.

Finn Russell has taken on the lions’ share of the tactical kicking responsibilities when this half back pairing has been on Scotland duty. The only time Ben White kicked more than his stand off during the 2023 Six Nations was when Russell was missing against Italy and Blair Kinghorn filled the 10 shirt.

McMessi has spent much of his Test career with Stuart Hogg’s booming boot or Greig Laidlaw’s canny kicking as an option – he may well need some support from his backline colleagues in this part of the contest. Although if Scotland’s pack can get them consistently on the front foot expect Finn to be the one leading the charge with a variety of attacking tricks as he did for many of his 20 kicks from hand at Murrayfield last year.

Zander Fagerson has started 36 of Scotland’s last 44 internationals since the beginning of 2020 (82% - higher than any other Scot). Meanwhile, prior to Saturday, his opposite number, Leon Brown, made just 1 start across the same period and this is just his 4th start at Test level despite debuting in 2017 as a 21-year old. Scotland’s major issue is backing up Fagerson though and with WP Nel injured, a huge amount of responsibility falls on the Glasgow prop’s substantial shoulders.

Wales are missing arguably their best second row option (in the shape of Will Rowlands) but a Lion and a future Lion are still pretty decent choices to be able to make! The visitors have seen the veteran pairing of Richie Gray and Grant Gilchrist split up by suspension but that’s not necessarily the worst thing with one eye on the short-term future, let alone taking any consideration of the 2027 World Cup. When fit, Scott Cummings has been a near automatic selection for the 23 for more than 4 years now. Gilchrist’s absence is an opportunity to seize back the starting role that Cummings last held through most of the 2020 and 2021 Six Nations.

Even with Rory Darge injured, Gregor Townsend will feel whoever he opted to pick in the back row can do a job. All 6 of the available players will similarly feel they had made a strong case for inclusion in the 23, with Andy Christie possibly the unluckiest man in the squad to miss out. The trio selected really need to show their mettle against a workmanlike Welsh breakaway unit that won’t lack for graft but will miss the class of the likes of Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau. If Crosbie, Ritchie and Fagerson can’t win this battle then it’s going to be a real struggle when they come up against the stellar back rows being named by other sides – France and Ireland in particular.

3 Test debutants and 3 others making their first ever Six Nations appearances make it tricky to gauge who will win the battle of the benches. In fact, both coaches may feel they need to go deep with their starting unit. Jack Dempsey would seem the most likely to get a decent amount of minutes. The big number 8 has only played twice since the World Cup in France so should certainly be raring to go but might need to knock a little rust off first.

His Test debut might have been back in 2018 but if he comes on at the Principality Stadium then this will be just the 6th Six Nations appearance (out of a possible 26) for George Horne – all from the bench. He will be hoping to enter the fray with the game needing the tempo upped but he’s also shown with some of his performances for Glasgow – both before and after Ali Price’s departure – that he can put a bit of control on the game when necessary.

Given Scotland’s offensively poor record in Wales though, the dark blues’ fans will be praying the sub scrum half isn’t called upon to do anything more stressful than put the gloss on a win – if the match is close and nerves kick in, or the Cardiff curse has already bitten, it’s not going to be pretty or fun for anyone with a Scottish connection...

* Six Nations debut
** Test debut
Players in BLOCK CAPITALS have been selected for the British & Irish Lions

Miscellany 

– There are 11 players from Glasgow, 7 from Edinburgh and 5 Exiles in the Scotland 23. Wales call on 9 from Cardiff, 5 Scarlets, 4 Dragons, 2 Ospreys and 3 Exiles.

– Comparison of Scotland starting XV caps v Wales starting XV caps:

• 2024: +127 more for Scotland
• 2023: –77
• 2022: +21
• 2021: -447
• 2020: -111
• 2019: -305
• 2018: -111

– For the last dozen years, the full back contest in this fixture has boiled down to Stuart Hogg v either Leigh Halfpenny or Liam Williams. Since replacing Max Evans early in the 2012 clash, Hogg only missed the 2019 match (where Blair Kinghorn filled the 15 shirt) while Halfpenny has played in 8 of the last 12 games with Williams at full back for the other 4. This time round there are two new faces at full back who boast just a single cap between them.

– Wales’ 23s in 2023 and 2022 both included 10 British and Irish Lions (Scotland were able to call on 6 and 8 respectively for those fixtures). This time round the Welsh only have 3 of their Lions in the lineup (compared to 4 for the Scots).

– There are just 96 previous caps on the bench for Scotland, only the second time this has been below 100 for a Six Nations fixture during the Townsend era (74 v Italy in 2019). There were two games during the 2023 Championship where Scotland’s bench players had 339 caps combined.

– Gareth Davies is the only over 30 in Wales’ matchday squad. By contrast, for the Scots, Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Finn Russell, George Turner, Richie Gray, Alec Hepburn and Elliot Millar-Mills are all 30+.