All you need to know ahead of Scotland vs South Africa

They face a hugely challenging obstacle to achieving that feat though, in the shape of the world champion Springboks.

During the professional era, Scotland and South Africa have met on 19 occasions at all venues, with the Springboks winning 17 times and the average score coming out at 32 – 14 in their favour.

Scotland's all-time wins v South Africa:

• 2010: Scotland 21-17 South Africa
• 2002: Scotland 21-6 South Africa
• 1969: Scotland 6-3 South Africa
• 1965: Scotland 8-5 South Africa
• 1906: Scotland 6-0 South Africa

Dan Parks landed all 21 points in Scotland's most recent win over the Springboks (Image: SNS) The most recent victory over the Springboks is so long ago that there is no one in the current Scottish squad who had even played professional rugby at that point, let alone featured for the national side!

South Africa Scouting Report

Last five matches outside South Africa

• 21 Sep 2024: Argentina 29-28 South Africa
• 17 Aug 2024: Australia 12-30 South Africa
• 10 Aug 2024: Australia 7-33 South Africa
• 28 Oct 2023: New Zealand 11-12 South Africa
• 21 Oct 2023: England 15-16 South Africa

The Danger Zone

During the 2024 Rugby Championship, the Springboks won the 22 entries’ battle in all six of the matches they played.

They averaged 10.5 trips into their opponents’ danger zone but only allowed access to their own 22 on 6.7 occasions per game.

Rassie Erasmus’s side were also more efficient in converting these opportunities on the scoreboard with 2.8 points per entry compared to 1.9 for their opposition.

Rassie Erasmus' side are back-to-back world champions (Image: PA) Scotland’s wins in the Six Nations both came off the back of fewer 22 entries than either Wales or England but with the dark blues averaging 4.0 points per entry in both games.

Being ruthlessly efficient from limited opportunities seems the most likely route to a decent score for the Scots this weekend.

On its own that is unlikely to be enough though. They will need to win as many kicking duels as possible as well as avoid soft penalties in order to keep a heavy duty Springbok pack out of the home 22.

Speeding Up Their Game

South Africa were able to get lightning-quick ruck ball on 60% plus of their rucks in all bar one of their TRC fixtures.

Even on that one occasion, the All Blacks were only able to restrict them to 55% of rucks where the ball was away within 0-3 seconds.

Combined with an opening up of their playing style – 22% more passes per carry during the Rugby Championship than in the World Cup knockouts – and they will present the Scottish defence with a real variety of threats.

The Springboks have added to their game since New Zealander Tony Brown joined the coaching set-up (Image: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

In recent years, the dark blues have struggled against teams with aggressive sets of forwards that have overpowered them at the breakdown.

South Africa will undoubtedly bring that type of play on Sunday, but they will also ask questions of a defensive system that can be exposed in the wide areas.

Scotland’s set-up is going to have to fill the field without leaving themselves short close to the ruck or giving their wingers too much to do to cover the likes of Cheslin Kolbe on the outside.

Set-piece Challenge

The Springbok setpiece is incredibly potent but, based on their most recent form, certainly not infallible.

There was a bit of experimentation going on at times in The Rugby Championship and they still tended to come out on top in the biggest moments but they didn’t dominate the numbers the way that might have been expected.

• Scrums lost: South Africa 9-2 Opposition
• Lineouts lost: South Africa 13-13 Opposition
• Kick-off receptions lost: South Africa 1-2 Opponents

The Springboks’ fixtures averaged 14 scrums, 31 lineouts and 13 kick offs per game – so while the scrum might exert an outsized psychological impact, the lineout contest is likely to have more influence on this match.

Ruan Nortje only made his first Test start during the Rugby Championship but quickly established himself as South Africa’s go-to, winning 34 lineouts in five outings.

Bulls lock Ruan Nortje has become a go-to man for the Springboks (Image: Getty Images) The Bulls’ lock may not even make the 23 though if Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert and RG Snyman are all fit available for selection.

The primary focus for Scotland will need to be securing their own ball when up against some outstanding lineout operators.

If the ambition is to win though, they will need to pressure and disrupt the visitors’ throw-ins and the supply of ball to the likes of Nortje.

That task will probably be slightly easier if the Springboks opt to keep their most consistent thrower, Malcolm Marx, in reserve.

Miscellany

During the Rugby Championship, South Africa:

• Won the discipline battle in five of their six matches. They averaged fewer than ten penalties per game while their opponents racked up more than 12 per match.
• Kicked from hand more frequently than their opponents in all bar one of their games, averaging 28 kicks to 24.
• Forced their opponents to make more tackles in every fixture – another indicator of changes to the style of play from 2023 where it was normally the Springboks playing without the ball and racking up high tackle counts.
• Had a tackle completion rate of just 84%. The rush defence prioritises speed and disruption over tackle accuracy, and the front line defenders know there will be cover options sweeping in behind.

Previous results

This will be the 19th time the two sides have played at Murrayfield. The head-to-head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:

L L L W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L

Most recent meeting in Edinburgh:

Scotland 15-30 South Africa

Significant stat

Two: The number of tries for Scotland – both of them scored from fullback.

Scotland’s backs haven’t exactly been prolific against the Springboks, averaging 0.8 tries per game during the pro era, but the pack that have struggled to impose themselves in these matches.

Hamish Watson scored a try in the 2018 meeting from a cleverly-worked lineout move (Image: SNS)

Hamish Watson’s five-pointer in 2018 is the only try that a Scottish forward has notched versus South Africa in the last 16 years.

Nathan Hines’ score in 2008 is the only occasion in the last 64 years that a tight five forward has crossed for Scotland against the Springboks.

World ranking watch

Current world rankings: 7th Scotland (83.39) v 2nd South Africa (91.77)

Scotland cannot lose a place no matter the result on Sunday. A win could bring any or all of Argentina (sixth), England (fifth) and France (fourth) within reach if those sides lose their matches at the weekend.

The dark blues’ historic win percentage against teams ranked second in the world is 19%.

Scotland’s wins against number two ranked nations:

• 2021: England 6 – 11 Scotland
• 2018: Scotland 25 – 18 England
• 2012: Australia 6 – 9 Scotland
• 2010: Scotland 21 – 17 South Africa

Officials

• Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
• Assistant Referee 1: Luke Pearce (England)
• Assistant Referee 2: Craig Evans (Wales)
• TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
• FPRO: Tual Trainini (France)

For the fifth time in their last six Tests, Scotland have a referee who has never previously taken charge of a match involving the dark blues.

At 31 years of age, Mr Ridley will be younger than a number of the players. He will face one of the most high-profile games of his career so far having reffed his first Six Nations fixture earlier this year.

Christophe Ridley will take charge of Sunday's game (Image: Simon Galloway/PA Wire) Despite his youth, the English official has already been a referee for eight years and has racked up more than 100 club matches.

That includes Edinburgh’s Challenge Cup clash with Bordeaux in 2019, meaning this won’t be his first outing at Murrayfield.

The 5,432 attendance for that fixture won’t really compare to the atmosphere generated by a sell out crowd this Sunday at the home of Scottish rugby though!