All you need to know as URC champions Glasgow face Ulster

Kevin Millar delves into the stats behind the match.

• There are five changes to the Glasgow starting lineup that won the URC final against the Bulls just 92 days ago – Stafford McDowall, Jamie Dobie, Sam Talakai, Max Williamson and Henco Venter replacing Huw Jones, George Horne, Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings and Jack Dempsey.
• Since the beginning of the PRO12 era in 2011/12, Glasgow have started their season at the Kingspan Stadium (and also at the Sportsground) on four occasions – as many times as their opening fixture has taken place at Scotstoun. The total split is four at home and ten away in round one
• Backs have scored the first try of the campaign for Glasgow Warriors in 14 of the last 16 seasons. Zander Fagerson (2022/23) and Mike Cusack (2015/16) are the only forwards to make the list during this period.
• In the last twenty league encounters between these two sides in front of fans there have been just two away wins – one for each team. Ulster also won at Scotstoun behind closed doors during the 2020/21 season.
• Eight of Glasgow’s starting lineup (plus Zander Fagerson on the bench) played no part in either of the club’s preseason fixtures.
• The only man in the Warriors’ 23 that has played in a victory at the Kingspan is Richie Gray who started when his side won 25-13 at what was then Ravenhill in December 2009.

The teams

Ulster vs Glasgow Warriors teams (Image: Kevin Millar) (players in CAPITALS are full capped internationals, numbers in brackets are previous appearances for Ulster / Glasgow)

Head to head

Ulster vs Glasgow Warriors head-to-head (Image: Kevin Millar)

Glasgow greetings

Sam Talakai will be the first of the Warriors’ four new props to debut this season.

The former Melbourne Rebels player recently turned 33 – across the previous five seasons, the only older player to make their first Glasgow appearance was Ian Keatley who was just under a month short of his 34th birthday when he played against Zebre in March 2021.

Sam Talakai will make his Glasgow debut in Belfast (Image: SNS) Meanwhile, Adam Hastings is in line for his re-debut 1,206 days after his last outing for the Warriors which came at full back in their Rainbow Cup win over Leinster at Scotstoun.

Matchday milestones

Zander Fagerson, will make his 150th appearance when he is sprung from the bench. The prop is one of only two players – along with Duncan Weir – to feature in both of Glasgow’s title-winning campaigns and will be the third youngest to hit 150 for the club after John Barclay and Rob Harley.

There is also a 50th outing for fullback Josh McKay. The 2023-24 Player of the Season joins a pretty exclusive group who have brought up their half-century without once being named on the bench. The only other members are Rory Lamont and Thom Evans.

Warrior to Watch

This is likely to be a big season for Jamie Dobie who makes just his seventh appearance in the number nine jersey in the last 18 months.

He has still been a regular for Glasgow during that time, as well as picking up games for the national side, but has made nearly as many starts on the wing (six) for club and country as well as coming off the bench on 16 occasions.

Circumstances conspired against him last season when it came to pressing any claims to be the Warriors’ top choice at scrum half. Ali Price’s departure came at the last minute and then Dobie very soon after picked up an injury.

Jamie Dobie has found starts at scrum-half hard to come by (Image: SNS)

When he returned, the flexibility he could provide, covering two different positions – particularly vital with a six forwards, two backs split – allied to George Horne’s role as first choice goalkicker contributed to a bench spot becoming the younger man’s focus.

The six/two split is unlikely to change but Dobie can attack this season knowing he is starting out in the second slot in the Depth Chart and he and Horne can push each other to new heights. Adam Hastings return is also likely to change the goal kicking focus for some matches.

Dobie has a broad skillset and the potential to be a regular starter at Test level. Five years on from his Warriors’ debut this campaign needs to be one where he spends a lot more time at nine.

URC form

The form guide (Image: Kevin Millar)

Track record…

…away to Ulster in the PRO12/PRO14/URC era:

• One win
• Nine losses
• One Try BP
• Two Losing BPs
• Seven points out of a possible 50 (14%)

Previous match-up v Ulster in Belfast

Officials

Referee: Adam Jones (WRU, 38th league game); ARs: Robbie Jenkinson and Padraig Reidy (both IRFU); TMO: Tom Spurrier (WRU)

Mr Jones’ record for 2023/24

• Matches – 10
• Average penalty count – 18.3 per game
• Home side penalties conceded percentage – 48.6%
• Average card count – 1.6 per game
• Penalties per card – 11.4

Mr Jones’ stats are spookily similar to Andrea Piardi, who, of course, took charge of the Warriors’ last two competitive fixtures.

Welshman Adam Jones will be the man in charge (Image: SNS)

It does feel that under 20 penalties per game (on average) with around 1.5 / 1.6 cards is very much typical ref territory for all bar the inexperienced officials and occasional outlier.

Glasgow’s record with the Welsh whistler isn’t the best, only winning the penalty count in one of the five games he has taken charge of (a home fixture against Zebre).

The man from Swansea once penalised the Warriors 24 times in a match versus Edinburgh in the Rainbow Cup – and threw in two yellow cards and a red for good measure. Glasgow did still win that one but it’s not really the route they will want to go down as they look for a strong start to their attempt to win back to back titles.